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McDonald's said it's gaining middle- and higher-income customers, who are trading down to its menu. McDonald's expects to raise menu prices by about 10% this year — on top of a 10% increase last year. AdvertisementAdvertisementMcDonald's said Monday that customers continue to count on the chain for affordable meals, even as it raises menu prices. "Providing affordable options for our customers has always been core to McDonald's' success," Borden said. But the definition of "cheap" is changing in the face of persistent inflation — and McDonald's is far from the only restaurant chain raising prices.
Persons: McDonald's, it's, , Chris J, Kempczinski, Ian Borden, That's, Borden, Mark Kalinowski, We've Organizations: Service, Mac, XM, Black Box Intelligence Locations: Orange , California
People sit outdoors at the Petite Crevette Restaurant on June 05, 2021 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. During the Great Recession, consumers hunted for bargains, trading down to cheaper restaurants or picking the least expensive menu options. But today, as inflation puts pressure on their wallets, consumers are more likely to cut back on their restaurant visits instead to preserve their budgets, according to a report from AlixPartners. In April, prices for food away from home rose 8.6% compared with the year-earlier period, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Back in January 2009, just 12% of respondents said they would eliminate or reduce visits to cut back on their restaurant spending.
Persons: Andrew Sharpee Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Intelligence, AlixPartners Locations: Brooklyn, New York City, AlixPartners
Warmer weather usually boosts restaurant sales, but diners may hold back for the second straight summer as inflation weighs on consumers' minds — and wallets. In addition to higher restaurant bills, diners were also paying more at the gas pump and in grocery stores. Restaurant sales snapped back in August, which Black Box Intelligence attributed to higher consumer confidence levels as gas prices fell. Nearly half of operators surveyed by Datassential anticipate higher sales or improved traffic this summer season. Summer typically ushers in a wave of seasonal restaurant jobs to meet higher demand, particularly in the Northeast and tourist destinations.
As restaurants prepare to present their first-quarter earnings, investors are anticipating strong results. When restaurants released their fourth-quarter reports in February, many touted impressive sales growth in January. Starting in the second quarter, restaurants will face comparisons to last year's sales bump driven by double-digit price increases, so they'll have to depend on higher traffic to drive sales growth. The relatively high valuations for restaurant stocks bring a downside for the industry, McCarthy said. Morgan Stanley's Harbour wrote that stocks could fall even on solid results "if the path forward is less clear."
For the first time since inflation began accelerating in mid-2021, restaurant prices outpaced grocery prices on a 12-month basis, according to the Labor Department. For months, restaurant CEOs like Cheesecake Factory's Matthew Clark and Wendy's Todd Penegor have touted their meals as a relative bargain compared with eating at home, based on consumer price index data. March food prices rose 8.5% over the last 12 months, fueled by the jump in the cost of eating away from home, which was up 8.8% over that period. The National Restaurant Association's chief economist, Bruce Grindy, attributed the increase to the surge in food prices at schools as free lunch programs instituted during the Covid pandemic expired. The overall consumer price index has risen 5% over the last 12 months as inflation continues to cool.
Starbucks previously reported that premium add-ons like syrups are a $1 billion business. A drop in traffic amid a looming 2023 recession could also hit Starbucks. Jefferies is "baking into our forecast" that a recession will lower US same-store sales at Starbucks due to negative traffic growth, Barish said. Those modifiers are big business for Starbucks, according to Sara Trilling, president of Starbucks North America. Add-ons are a $1 billion "high margin" business for Starbucks that has doubled since 2019, the company said during the November call.
In response to that drop-off, both chains and independents are working to address the cost factor without alienating diners. Aaron Allen, founder and CEO of restaurant consultancy Aaron Allen & Associates, compared restaurant chains to oil tankers and independents to speedboats. Kate Bruce, owner of The Buttery Bar in Brooklyn, said she's been facing higher costs for everything from labor to cooking oil to energy. Portillo's restaurant chain CEO Michael Osanloo said independents do have greater flexibility when it comes to changing prices. Consumers care more about prices when they're visiting a chain restaurant, according to findings from a survey of roughly 2,400 U.S. consumers conducted by PYMNTS.
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